Mashup Growth on Track, Predictions Hold True
I have been keeping a close eye on mashup progression over time. Back in April 2006 (about 4 months ago) I had predicted that the total mashup count (on ProgrammableWeb) would break 1,000 mashups by the end of Summer 2006. The forecast was largely based on the current daily rate of mashups x my own estimation of acceleration due to new technologies and API releases. At the time of the prediction there were just under 600 mashups (about 580).
Recently John Musser reported 900 Mashups listed in his ProgrammableWeb database. As of today there are 907 mashups listed, with an average rate of 2.74 mashups per day. Back in April the rate hovered around the same amount (~ 2.73).
My estimation was that Mashups/Day would hit between 2.75/day over time. The date was April 11th, and it is now August 12th. So for roughly four months my estimation is as follows…
4 months x 30 days x 2.75 mash/day = 330 new mashups
580 existing mashups (April) + 330 estimated = ~910 total
This is about where we are at (907 actual). Summer ends roughly 40 days from now.
40 days x 2.75 mash/day = 110
910 + 110 = 1,020 mashups by end of Summer
At the current rate today, the number of mashups should indeed break 1,000. Unless of course all the mashup developers take an extended vacation. While my estimates are very close to target, the acceleration of mashup development is a tad bit lower than I originally anticipated. So I’m surprised that the aggregate average rate of Mashups/Day has not increased a bit more.
Well if you followed all that this far, I’ll tell you something that is actually relevant to the shopping industry… Shopping mashups are still holding a 7% stake of all mashups!
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